CMA Awards 2021: Who will win (and who should) at this year's award show
The stage is set for shakeups and surprises at this year's CMA Awards, with several new talents in the running for first-time wins, as well as a few pretty conspicuous absences.
Ahead of Wednesday's big show — which airs live on ABC from Nashville's Bridgestone Arena — we've taken a stab at who we think will come out on top, and present our cases for the most deserving. It wasn't easy (and we'll soon see just how accurate we were) but join us as we place our bets on "Country Music's Biggest Night"
Entertainer of the Year
Nominees: Eric Church, Miranda Lambert, Carrie Underwood, Chris Stapleton, Luke Combs
It's time for Luke Combs to finish his climb to the peak of country music stardom. No artist nominated for the premier CMA Awards prize has impacted the format like Combs — an everyman star who's as much a beer-chuggin' firestarter on stage as he a warmhearted storyteller in the writer's room. He continues to dominate sales and radio charts — sending 11 consecutive songs to No. 1 on country radio and topping the 2020 year-end Billboard country artist chart — and returned to touring this year to headline arenas, sometimes playing multiple nights in one city.
Still, the crown for country music's top entertainer sits with 2020 winner Eric Church, and that's where it might stay. A vital live performer, Church arguably pushed harder than any modern artist in Nashville to return to the road this year. He was first to unveil touring plans after a COVID-19 vaccine became readily available and he publicly pushed for fans to get vaccinated — getting his shot on the cover of Billboard magazine — in hopes to making concerts safe again. Church's push for touring to return came as he rolled out a prolific 24-song album that stretched between influences of roots rock, country, disco and soul music.
And don't count out Miranda Lambert or Carrie Underwood, two perennial entertainers who're overdue to win an Entertainer of the Year.
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Should win: Luke Combs
Will win: Eric Church
Female Vocalist of the Year
Nominees: Ashley McBryde, Miranda Lambert, Maren Morris, Gabby Barrett, Carly Pearce
Kacey Musgraves won two years ago on the heels of her breakthrough album “Golden Hour.” Maren Morris did the same in 2020 following “GIRL.”
Now it’s likely Lambert’s turn to pick up her eighth Female Vocalist of the Year award on the strength of “The Marfa Tapes,” which was released to near-universal acclaim earlier this year. It also helps her chances that Carrie Underwood is conspicuously absent from the category for the first time in 15 years.
Should and will win: Miranda Lambert
Male Vocalist of the Year
Nominees: Dierks Bentley, Eric Church, Luke Combs, Thomas Rhett, Chris Stapleton
For the reasons listed above, Combs deserves to bring home Male Vocalist of the Year, and barring an upset, it's likely he'll hoist the gendered trophy for a third consecutive year.
Should win and will win: Luke Combs
Album of the Year
Nominees: Carly Pearce "29," Chris Stapleton "Starting Over," Morgan Wallen "Dangerous: The Double Album," Brothers Osborne "Skeletons" and Eric Church "Heart"
On "29," Carly Pearce chronicled her public divorce with singer Michael Ray by releasing some of the year's most captivating country storytelling. The seven-song collection follows a year Pearce said brought her to her knees before making her "better for myself, better for my family, better for my friends," she told The Tennessean earlier this year. It's worthy of a CMA win, but fans shouldn't worry too much if voters overlook "29" this year. She expanded the album into a full-length re-release — "29: Written In Stone" — that skillfully digs deeper into life during and after heartbreak.
Pearce faces tough competition in a strong year for country albums, including Church's rollicking "Heart," Brothers Osborne's groundbreaking "Skeletons" and Stapleton's powerhouse "Starting Over" album. Stapleton's won Album of the Year twice before and "Starting Over" gives voters another complete outing from the fan-favorite singer that may be enough to push him to a third win.
Should win: Carly Pearce - "29"
Will win: Chris Stapleton - "Starting Over"
New Artist of the Year
Nominees: Ingrid Andress, Jimmie Allen, Gabby Barrett, Mickey Guyton, HARDY
Nashville’s often called a “10-year town,” referring to the glacial process of rising through Music Row’s ranks – if you even get the chance. That’s literally been Guyton’s experience, as her nod for New Artist comes a full decade after signing her major label deal. Of course, she’s had a uniquely challenging journey as the genre’s most prominent Black female voice. On the heels of her overdue debut album, “Remember Her Name,” a New Artist win for Guyton would be a deserved crowning achievement.
At the same time, the 21-year-old Barrett has been an invigorating presence in the genre – and a highly successful one at that – clicking with young, pop-minded and digitally savvy audiences in a way that few of her peers can. We’re betting on a close race between these two artists, each representing different dimensions of country’s future.
Should win: Mickey Guyton
Will win: Gabby Barrett
Song of the Year
Nominees: Luke Combs "Forever After All," Eric Church "Hell of a View," Gabby Barrett "The Good Ones," Ashley McBryde "One Night Standards" and Chris Stapleton "Starting Over"
The title track from Chris Stapleton's latest album "Starting Over" stands out as the best on his 2020 release. The tenured Kentucky songwriter enlisted former SteelDrivers bandmate Mike Henderson to weave a road-worthy tale that finds his wife and collaborator Morgane Stapleton singing backup vocals and longtime Heartbreakers player Benmont Tench adding a layer of B3 Hammond. It's a hopeful tune that captures endless possibilities that may be found around the next corner for those willing to "take our chances and roll the dice," as Stapleton sings in the chorus — a timely message for listeners who felt the continued weight of the pandemic when Stapleton released it last year.
Should win and will win: Chris Stapleton - "Starting Over"
Single of the Year
Nominees: "Famous Friends," "Hell of a View, "The Good Ones," "One Night Standards" and "Starting Over"
Stapleton is no stranger to being called up to the podium repeatedly in a single night – and he should be prepared to get his steps in again on Wednesday. The wonderfully raw “Starting Over” stands out from its slick peers, even though McBryde’s “One Night Standards” is similarly subtle. CMA voters have gravitated to those songs in recent years: see past Single of the Year winners “Girl Crush” and Stapleton’s own “Broken Halos.”
Should win and will win: “Starting Over”
Vocal Group of the Year
Nominees: Lady A, Little Big Town, Midland, Old Dominion, Zac Brown Band
Zac Brown Band has returned to mainstream country’s good graces with their latest album, and mainstays Lady A and Little Big Town, as always, are formidable competition.
Still, it’s a safe bet that Old Dominion – country’s most successful traditional band in recent memory – will continue their streak and pick up their fourth consecutive win in this category.
Should win and will win: Old Dominion
Vocal Duo of the Year
Nominees: Brooks & Dunn, Brothers Osborne, Dan + Shay, Florida Georgia Line, Maddie & Tae
There’s a strong chance that Dan + Shay will win this prize for the third straight year. It’s a solid choice, as Dan Smyers and Shay Mooney continue to pack arenas (and prepare to do stadiums next year with Kenny Chesney) on the heels of their 2021 album “Good Things,” which featured the country chart-topper “Glad You Exist.”
Still, it’s been a defining year for sibling duo Brothers Osborne – who previously dominated the category from 2016 to 2018. After brilliantly melding southern rock grit and dancefloor stomp on their 2020 album “Skeletons,” lead vocalist T.J. Osborne’s coming out (in a first for an artist currently signed to a major country label) led to the watershed single “Younger Me."
Should win: Brothers Osborne
Will win: Dan + Shay