Last year’s BAFTA Awards went mostly as expected, but signaled turbulence in the coming Oscar race with one subtle surprise. Then-frontrunner The Power of the Dog still managed to win best picture with the British bloc, just as it had with the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, but it was also expected to win best adapted screenplay. Instead, the honor went to SAG ensemble champ CODA, the underdog of the season. This small show of wide industry support preceded a tide-turning producers’ guild win, and finally, its Oscar triumph for best picture.

The story is not the same this year. Why? In just about every category, momentum has shifted.

A guide to Hollywood’s biggest races

The BAFTAs matter greatly in terms of the Oscar race for a few reasons. The membership overlaps somewhat with the Academy’s. Voting on the winners is similar in system to the Oscars, which is to say, a wide range of film professionals—actors, sound mixers, casting agents, writers—vote in all of the main categories after nominations were selected by craft-specific branches. All of BAFTA getting behind CODA for screenplay indicated a groundswell; same for when Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins pulled off lead-acting wins that foreshadowed Oscar upsets.

Until Sunday, Everything Everywhere All at Once had been pulling ahead. Its win with the directors’ guild particularly proved the depth of its industry support; its Critics Choice dominance affirmed how well it could fare under consensus; and it’s a strong front-runner to win the SAG ensemble prize, which films like CODA, Parasite, and Spotlight used to cruise to the best-picture Oscar. Aside from a well-deserved editing win, however, BAFTA blanked the A24 hit entirely. Instead they gave a boatload of trophies to Netflix’s stealth contender All Quiet on the Western Front, including best picture, director, and adapted screenplay. It’s got to be a case of déjà vu for the streamer, as it’s Netflix's third movie to have won the top BAFTA after receiving a larger-than-expected Oscar nominations haul, following Roma and Power of the Dog. Those two settled for one above-the-line win, in directing. All Quiet’s Edward Berger wasn’t even nominated by the Academy’s directing branch.

So can it win the top Oscar? The reality: It’d be completely unprecedented for a film to miss out on SAG, PGA, and DGA nominations and go on to win best picture. All Quiet is the first film in nearly 40 years to pull off the equivalent BAFTA win without those nominations. You can attribute some of those guild omissions to Netflix’s late-starting campaign, but as Power of the Dog or 1917 will tell you, a BAFTA win and deep support from craft branches only take you so far. In any case, we’ve got a race. Especially seeing as All Quiet looks able to win best adapted screenplay, its path—however unusual—has been laid out. Next week, meanwhile, SAG and PGA will prove pivotal for Everything Everywhere’s trajectory. The actors’ guild still feels close to a lock for the film, but I wonder if BAFTA’s preference for a muscular war drama reflects a broader influence shift toward the mainstream. (Think Green Book over Roma.) Can that side of the industry propel Top Gun: Maverick to a win with the producers, and from there, propel it into that top mix? I’d say that’s a strong possibility.

The Daniels may have lost BAFTA’s directing award, but they can breathe comfortably knowing Berger isn’t even competition for the Oscar. That category is hardly settled, but no viable alternative has emerged. It’s elsewhere on the BAFTA winners list that things get interesting. Even Ke Huy Quan, who hasn’t lost a notable supporting-actor trophy yet, fell to The Banshees of Inisherin’s Barry Keoghan. Things still feel sewn-up there, Oscar-wise, but Quan has a challenger now. That was not true yesterday.

Speaking of Banshees, if it were to win big at the Academy Awards, it’d have to have done it first on home turf at BAFTA. That did not quite happen, as the Irish critical darling lost both picture and director, rendering it a longshot at this stage to pull off either. But Keoghan didn’t provide its only major moment. Martin McDonagh won original screenplay, where he can repeat at the Oscars, while Kerry Condon won best supporting actress over category leader Angela Bassett. That race has tightened considerably. Bassett, after all, has the hurdle of representing a Marvel movie—she’s the first to ever do so with the Academy—and her movie was not recognized anywhere else above the line. At least Quan’s Everything Everywhere is, well, everywhere in voters’ minds. Condon is a strong alternative to Bassett because she is contending for a bigger overall player. And she’s been a hell of a charmer on the trail.

Sadly, Colin Farrell may be out of the running for best actor, as that BAFTA prize went instead to Austin Butler. In the same way Cate Blanchett has emerged as Tár’s obvious honoree—she won again with BAFTA, so she still hasn’t lost anywhere major; she’s well ahead right now, even if Michelle Yeoh wins SAG—Butler’s Elvis is clearly beloved enough to take the young breakout all the way. I’d bet on him winning SAG at this stage before a fairly clean march to Oscar. He didn’t need to win here, necessarily, but he did anyway.

For most of these winners, though, new Oscar hopes were born. Much remains unsettled—this is the fun part.